Bonny Basumatary is a Master’s candidate at the Department of Politics and International Studies, Pondicherry University, India.
India-China relations are marked by nearly 72 years of diplomatic ties. Today, they are among the fastest-growing major economies in the world, the most populous countries, and major regional powers in Asia. For long, the two countries have shared both cooperative and conflictual relations, but more recently the relations between the countries have been deeply marked with suspicion and mutual distrust. The most recent incident of conflict was seen at Tawang between the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Indian Army. The theatres of conflict between India and China are not only limited to land disputes or competition over high-seas, but also rivers. The Brahmaputra river dispute has been a persistent irritant factor in the relationship between India and China.
The river originates from Tibet as Yarlung Tsangpo and crosses the border into Arunachal Pradesh as Brahmaputra and flows down into Bangladesh as Yamuna. India and China are the world’s most densely populated and water-stressed regions. India has 17 percent of the world’s population, and China is home to nearly the world’s 20 percent population with 7 percent water resources. Hence, there exist a bone of contention between the two countries regarding the share of water. Any water infrastructure development upon the river Brahmaputra is seen as a form of territorial demarcation and a control mechanism upon the critical river that serves as a source of energy for both the country’s growing economies. The river has become a challenge to manage rather than leverage to promote regional cooperation. Besides the increasing population, there are additional factors like supply crunch due to rapid urbanization, climate change, etc. Against this backdrop, this article discusses the strategic importance of the river Brahmaputra and its implications for the relationship between the two countries.
The Strategic Importance of River Brahmaputra for India
The Brahmaputra is one of the most significant rivers for India as it is a transboundary river which flows from Tibet to northeast India, and then to Bangladesh. I It has a substantial geostrategic implication for countries sharing its basin area, especially India. The Tibetan plateau, which is an alleviated region, brings a considerable amount of fertile alluvial soil during its flow, making the banks of Brahmaputra highly productive and ideal for agriculture. The average alleviation of the plateau is 4-5 km above sea level. The river water flows with tremendous speed and power that can be captured to generate electricity by India by building hydropower dams. The state of Arunachal Pradesh alone possesses 35 percent of India’s hydropower potential, however only a small percent is currently being utilized.
The Brahmaputra is extremely important for India’s North-East India, and its geological concerns. The north-eastern region is the sixth most seismically active region in the world. Nevertheless, India can tap into the potential of the northeast region by efficiently building reservoirs to control the flow of water in drought and surplus rainy seasons. India’s capability with producing surplus water through Brahmaputra as a middle riparian country can also help India to get a diplomatic boost. Since, Bangladesh is a lower riparian country, India’s ability to store the surplus energy and sharing with Bangladesh can boost the diplomatic relations.
The Brahmaputra river accounts for nearly 30 percent of India’s freshwater resources and about 44 percent of its hydropower potential; therefore, it is of utmost importance for India’s energy and water security. Furthermore, the Brahmaputra River has become increasingly important in the context of climate change, as its water resources are vulnerable to changes in precipitation patterns and glacial melting. As a result, the Brahmaputra has become a focus of international cooperation and attention, with several regional and global initiatives like the Brahmaputra River Basin Initiative (BRBI) between the Governments of India, China and Bangladesh. It aims at promoting sustainable management and development of the river’s resources.
The river is of great geopolitical importance to India, particularly as it shares its border areas with China. There are many instances in the past like the Galwan Valley clash or the recent clash between the PLA and the Indian Army in Tawang which suggests the assertiveness of China in the region thus, any disturbance in the territory may lead to China manipulating the flow of the river upstream creating significant implications for India’s water security. It can disrupt India’s infrastructure development plans for building hydropower dams thereby endangering India’s security and geopolitical stand in the region.
Above all, China’s territorial claim over Arunachal Pradesh as southern Tibet and building numerous dams in the Brahmaputra River is a security challenge for India as dam construction and other infrastructure development in the region will provide China with a greater influence and easy access to the disputed parts of India’s eastern sector of the Sino-India border. It is also significant from India’s geopolitical interests as India can also counter China with its infrastructure development projects in Arunachal Pradesh. The Dibang Multipurpose project that is India’s largest ever hydropower project near China’s border can be considered as a stepping stone for India’s Infrastructure development plans.
What is the Conflict about?
The conflation of the India-China water dispute with more significant territorial and political conflicts aggravates water as a source of conflict between them. The Himalayan waters are an invaluable resource for the two countries, whose water supplies are stressed by rapid economic development and population growth. To utilize the natural resources to their utmost potential, both countries are competing to meet their interests in the region. The Brahmaputra River/Yarlung Tsangpo is the most important water resource they share among the rivers that cross their disputed border. The Brahmaputra River flows from Tibet into Arunachal Pradesh, which is territorially a part of India but claimed by China as Southern Tibet. The Tibetan plateau is very rich and vast in its resources, half of the world’s population depends on the river originating from Tibet for its water needs. After 1951 China took over Tibet along with its crucial geography and with this China got an undue advantage of controlling the rivers originating from Tibet. China’s South-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) can be seen as a manifestation of it. It is a massive infrastructure project that aims to transfer water from the water-rich southern region of China to the water-scarce northern regions. This project is a matter of concern for India in the context of the river Brahmaputra. India fears China’s diversion project could potentially affect the flow of the water in the Brahmaputra and sediments transport to the river which could affect agriculture, fisheries and hydropower generation in the region.
China naturally has a significant advantage over India as the upper riparian and China uses this advantage from time to time. For instance, it controlled the flow of information in response to the military confrontation during the 73-day Doklam standoff in 2017. Beijing stopped sharing the data, claiming that the hydrological gathering sites had been washed away due to floods. A five-year Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed in 2002 to aid in the forecasting of floods caused by the Brahmaputra in this region of North Eastern India. According to the terms of the MoU, the Chinese side provided hydrological information (water level, discharge, and rainfall) for three stations on the Brahmaputra River, namely Nugesha, Yangcun, and Nuxia, via e-mail twice a day from 1st June to 15th October every year. Related MoUs were further renewed in 2008, 2013 and 2018. In November 2020, China announced plans for dam construction on the section of the Brahmaputra where it is closest to India as a part of its 14th five-year plan. This plan sets out China’s socio-economic and development goals until 2025. It elicited strong reactions from the Indian side. China’s plans to build a mega dam just before the Brahmaputra enters India are of particular concern to India. The announcement of these plans comes at a time when relations between China and India were strained due to the clash of troops near the Galwan Valley. It suggests China’s assertiveness in its goal to use water as a coercive tool to build pressure on its neighbours, especially India, a power that can soon surpass it as a regional powerhouse.
India’s concerns are driven by China’s continuous dam-building projects as well as its plan to divert the Brahmaputra water. In a tit-for-tat retaliative measure, India has also initiated the Upper Siang hydroelectric project in Arunachal Pradesh. It is a 11,000 MW dam project located in Arunachal’s upper Subansiri area. Under this project several hydroelectric power dams will be constructed. According to experts, a large dam may help control floods in India but might open fresh disputes over water sharing with Bangladesh downstream. So it would be more beneficial if all three countries agreed to be more transparent and share information on the seasonal flow of the river. There are also environmental concerns from locals primarily because it may pose threat to farmland and displacement.
Challenges Posed by China to India in the Brahmpatura Dispute
China has always been a difficult neighbour in India-China relations. It has been challenging India with various big dam projects in the Brahmaputra river basin. It has an advantage in building dams and other infrastructure to store or divert the flow of the river system because it lies in the upstream. During times of conflict with its neighbours like India and Bangladesh, the flow rate has the potential to change dramatically as China can control floods in the Northeast region of India and Bangladesh as well. India and China have agreements requiring the latter to share hydrological data from the river during the monsoon season, which runs from May to October but Beijing has always remained ambiguous and ambivalent in demonstrating its commitment to international water norms. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, adopted in 1997, provides a legal framework for the management of transboundary watercourses, including rivers, lakes and aquifers. But Beijing’s stand in the Brahmaputra River has frequently caused concerns about water security for lower riparian states such as India and Bangladesh. It has now been revealed that China charges India approx. $158 million for hydrological data on transboundary rivers. Apparently, China tends to use water diplomacy to supplement its military efforts in the region.
Additionally, China’s numerous dam-building activities in the Brahmaputra have been a significant concern for India. Its Zangmu dam in Tibet has already been operationalized. Recently Beijing has also announced plans to build a dam 60 metres high and 60000 megawatts in the Namcha Barwa peak or the Great bend of the Brahmaputra, which is a matter of concern for India. The great bend is situated in a tectonic zone that is highly volatile. They are extremely earthquake-prone due to their proximity to known geological fault lines where the Indian Plate collides with the Eurasian Plate. In 2008, the Chinese government insisted that the 7.9 earthquake that killed more than 69,000 people in Sichuan province was a natural disaster. But there is still a debate that Beijing is trying to cover up the real culprit: the Three Gorges Dam, the world’s largest and most controversial hydroelectric project. Experts suggest that the race for dam building by both China and India on the banks of Brahmaputra will cause cumulative environmental impacts and endanger the livelihoods of more than 100 million people depending on the river.
Are Confidence-building Measures the Way Forward?
Both countries signed an MOU in 1954 to share hydrological data, but the border war in 1962 halted the progress. In October 2013, the Prime Ministers of both countries agreed to strengthen their cooperation on the trans-border Rivers through the existing Expert level Mechanism (ELM) to provide flood season data and emergency management. Under the new agreement, the Chinese side agreed to provide more flood data on the Brahmaputra River from May to October instead of June to October, which was in practice beforehand. Both countries have expressed no interest in the 1992 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). In 2006, during the Chinese president’s visit to India, an agreement was made for setting up an ELM to discuss the matters of cooperation on the provision of flood season hydrological data, emergency management and other related issues. The ELM meetings are held alternately in India and China every year, and the 13th meeting of ELM was held on 18th May 2022 through video-conferencing.
There is a necessity to redefine and revamp the existing efforts made by India-China related to the sharing of the river Brahmaputra. Both nations share hydrological data, so it becomes essential to share genuine data and have a continuous dialogue on issues like warning of droughts, floods and high-water discharges. Water scarcity in the two countries poses a significant threat to food security. Both leaders of the two countries appear to be aware of these new challenges in this era. Hence, both parties should cooperate on more agreement for water sharing. India, China and Bangladesh should develop a comprehensive river basin plan to mitigate the impact of geological disasters and hydroelectric projects. As there is currently no international treaty in force, institutional mechanisms at the bilateral level are most important for moderating competition and fostering value-based cooperation. There are no practical international enforcement mechanisms in place to prevent any country from materially altering cross-border flows of a transnational water course through dam construction. That is why it is critical to establish cooperation based on mutually agreed-upon rules. Inter-country water institutions based on international standards of fair utilization would aid in the facilitation of dialogue and structured cooperation. Although such collaboration is difficult and has not happened till now, it is necessary for the sustainability of basin resources, strategic autonomy, and environmental protection.
The Brahmaputra River water dispute between India and China is a complex issue that has far-reaching implications for the region. The global rise of an expansionist China, as well as its long-term plans for securing natural resources, territories, and water, portends doom for the world at large and its neighbours in particular. When it comes to transboundary water resources between India and China, the deck is stacked heavily in favour of China, which is the upper riparian state. Its plans for numerous dams on the Brahmaputra River have posed a threat to India’s security as experts suggest that China is planning something big. The potential impact of dams, not only on the livelihood and the sustenance of the Brahmaputra River’s dependent population but also on their very existence due to catastrophic earthquakes and floods, is concerning. China’s lack of transparency and ambiguity in water management is fueling this dispute and creating mutual distrust between both nations. Lastly, resolving the Brahmaputra River dispute will require a long-term commitment from both India and China to work together, prioritize cooperation over competition, and build trust and confidence in their relationship. By taking a series of comprehensive approaches, India and China can build a mutually beneficial and sustainable relationship around the Brahmaputra River and contribute to regional stability and prosperity.
[The study was undertaken during internship at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations (DGIR), Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE), under the supervision of Dr. Amrita Jash, Assistant Professor, DGIR, MAHE.]
Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are personal.
