More than half-a-century ago, in 1959, the 14th Dalai Lama fled Tibet to take refuge in India after the Chinese invasion of Tibet. Prior to the signing of the Agreement on Trade between Tibet Autonomous Region and India in 1954, India had acknowledged Tibet’s de facto independence’. However, subsequently, India modified its position on Tibet by recognising Chinese suzerainty over Tibet. India since 2003, after the proclamation by the former Prime Minister of India, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, with regard to the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) has recognised it as an integral part of China at time when the Tibetan Government-in-exile, Central Tibetan Administration is located in Dharamsala, in India. India’s main objective behind recognising China’s indisputable control over Tibet has been to strengthen India-China ties and to resolve territorial disputes with China.
China occupied Tibet in 1949, and since then Tibet remains at the core of India-China relations. Geopolitically, Tibet’s strategic location makes it critically important for China as well as India so much so that the balance of power or ‘equilibrium’ between India and China is highly dependent on the status of Tibet. Historically, the state of Tibet acted as a buffer zone between the two countries. However, Chinese occupation of Tibet has led to a situation in which the buffer zone no longer exists and today India and China share boundaries. India-China border is actually the one that Tibet shared with British India prior to 1949. This implies that with China so close to India’s border, India’s national security is closely tied to Tibet and Tibet under Chinese control has several implications for India.
The early phase of India-China boundary dispute came up in 1949 when China under Mao Zedong started asserting itself and attempted to restore the so-called glorious past of China. India and China’s disagreements over differing perceptions with regard to the boundary led to the India-China war of 1962. The 1962 war not only affected the bilateral relationship but has become the single biggest irritant in the India-China relationship. Consequently, India is the only country with which China has not yet resolved its border dispute. Needless to say, had Tibet not been under China’s control, there would not be any boundary question between India and China. However, implications are not only confined to the border issue; infrastructural development in Tibet is also a major concern for India. For instance, rail-road network in Tibet is far more developed than on the Indian side of the border.
Another crucial facet of Tibet under China’s control is the issue of water security. Being the “water reservoir” of India, Tibet has one of the greatest water systems in the world. Apparently, China has initiated a huge dam building programme and river diversion projects in the region, mainly on the Brahmaputra River. With Tibet under its control, China has the status of being the upper riparian of all the major rivers like the Brahmaputra, the Indus, the Mekong, and the Salween, which bestows it with control over the water of all these rivers. As there is no formal water treaty between India and China, the methods and approaches adopted by China are not scrutinised. China’s policies could lead to water insecurity in countries like India, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Cambodia. Though, during Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s maiden visit to India in May 2013, China promised to provide hydrological information at three Indian hydro stations twice a day, it has till date not yielded any constructive results for India.
One of the most fundamental points that make matters more complex between India and China is that China’s Tibet policy is intertwined with China’s territorial approach towards India. China continues to shut its eyes to the ongoing protests and incidents of self-immolation in Tibet while maintaining its claim on the Indian territory of Arunachal Pradesh more assertively by calling it Southern Tibet. What worsens the situation is that while there already is a Beijing-Dharamsala deadlock, India-China border talks are also not heading in the positive direction. Though, in October 2013, during Indian Prime Minster Manmohan Singh’s visit to Beijing, India and China signed Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA), trends indicate that China is not likely to resolve its boundary dispute with India unless and until the Tibet issue is resolved. It is widely believed that differences between India and China over their protracted border dispute coupled with the presence of Tibetans in India do not augur well for the future of India-China relations. It seems China is not seriously considering a resolution of the Tibet issue or the border dispute with India and is simply buying time till the Dalai Lama passes away. Reportedly, in the views of China, after the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan movement will lose its essence which, in turn, would weaken India’s bargaining position on the border negotiations.
One may also argue that India’s policy towards Tibet does not have a long term and holistic perspective. It has been observed on many occasions that India does not want to rake up the issue as it might lead to uncontrolled downward spiral in India-China relations. Not raising the issue of human rights violations in the TAR at bilateral and even at multilateral forums suggests that unlike the EU and countries like Australia, which keep on raising such issues in dealing with China, India is not sensitive towards the Tibet issue.
While the Tibet issue, even in 2014, continues to linger on, India’s huge trade deficit of US$ 40 billion with China has the potential to be the biggest challenge for the leadership of India. Nevertheless, the exchange of high-level visit between India and China in 2013 resulted in both sides taking the matter with utmost seriousness. For instance, the seventh India-China Financial Dialogue is scheduled to be held in New Delhi in 2014 and the two sides have set US$ 100 billion trade target by 2015.
It is believed that India needs to revisit its policies towards Tibet and China as well so that peace along the border is ensured and the issue of huge trade imbalance is addressed. India has not taken much advantage of the presence of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans in India for the past 55 years. It is no hidden fact that India-China relations, sometimes, get strained because of the presence of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans in India; however, it is beyond doubt that the Dalai Lama’s presence adds to India’s standing in the global community as a democratic country. If the Indian leadership seeks to achieve the twin goal of resolving the huge trade deficit and the border dispute, it should utilise the Tibet issue as a bargaining chip. What needs to be done in 2014 is to keep looking for a lasting solution to the persisting issues.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are personal.
Sana Hashmi, Associate Fellow at Centre for Power Studies, New Delhi, Research Scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
