The final frontier of outer space is yet to be transformed into a battlefield. If the present shaping up of the geopolitics of the world is taken into perspective, the next two decades will witness a global arms race, culminating in a sophisticated weapon system being put into the orbit. The United States and Russia (formerly the USSR) have been involved in the game since early 1960s, when the Soviets first tested out the ‘hunter killer’ low orbit satellite system. US retaliated with a series of advanced strategic missile projects and some more promising ground launched tactics. Since then, however, both the US and the USSR have relatively put their space military programs behind curtains, maintaining non proliferation of space weapons technology to discourage the weaponizing of the orbit. But a clear message had been sent out to all spacefaring nations that they would not hesitate to start again, should this line be crossed.
In 2007, China sparked a flurry of global concern when it successfully tested out its first ASAT (anti- satellite) missile, destroying one of its obsolete weather satellites at an altitude of 865kms. In 2006, the US government released a report claiming that China had tagged some US observation satellites with a high power laser system. Although no major damage had been done to the satellites, it later emerged that the laser was not directed at the optical lenses, which could have rendered the satellites useless. In 2008, when the Shenzhou-07 was in orbit, the taikonauts on the mission released a BX-1 micro satellite. The BX-1 flew within the 1000 mile secure radius of the International Space Station (the ISS is programmed to change trajectory and orbit should this happen), and stopped short of just colliding. Although no harm was done, this demonstrated China’s ability to deploy micro satellites with ASAT capabilities.
The People’s Republic of China had, for long, lobbied against weaponization of outer space. The sudden change in their space policy can be seen as a deterrence tactic, as well as a curtain to hedge their bets. According to Theresa Hitchens, director of the Center for Defense Information, a private group in Washington that tracks military programs, “For several years, the Russians and Chinese have been trying to push a treaty to ban space weapons. The concept of exhibiting a hard-power capability to bring somebody to the negotiating table is a classic Cold War technique.” In 2007, the Bush Administration authorized a policy, which said that the United States would “preserve its rights, capabilities, and freedom of action in space” and “dissuade or deter others from either impeding those rights or developing capabilities intended to do so.” It declared the United States would “deny, if necessary, adversaries the use of space capabilities hostile to U.S. national interests.”
Apart from the global ramifications, this development has sent alarm bells ringing in India. A proponent against the weaponizing of outer space, India has made impressive developments with its Agni-V Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile, joining the elite club of a handful of countries which possess this technology. Recently, the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO), has announced that it can harness this technology to manufacture anti-satellite weaponry. This, along with the Indian Space Research Organization’s (ISRO) success with indigenous launch vehicles makes the Indian space program feasible and technologically capable for space weaponization activities. From the mid 1970s to 2005, the Indian space program had suffered significantly due to the imposition of a sanctions regime in response to India’s nuclear policies. India did not receive much technological assistance from any country during this period. India was welcomed in the mainstream only after the Indo-US deal was signed in 2008. Eventually, the US administration moved certain strategic companies, including those from the ISRO, off of the so-called Entity List, in an effort to drive hi-tech trade and forge closer strategic ties with India, only in 2011.
ISRO has already established its reliability when it comes to launching smaller satellites using its smaller Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV). Its workhorse launch vehicle has already put over 35 foreign satellites of various countries weighing between one kg and 712 kg in orbit, not to mention more than a dozen Indian satellites. With the recent success of the geosynchronous satellite launch vehicle (GSLV-D5), the ISRO is ready to take on satellites weighing over two tones, an important prerequisite to any weapon system being developed and deployed. Existing space treaties prohibit placing weapons of mass destruction in space but it is not against deploying weapons in space. Therefore, the next logical step for the DRDO is to develop orbital weapons, which could stay in space for as long as required while orbiting Earth or the Moon and the same can be activated and delivered whenever required.
It needs to be noted that there is only a blurred line between militarization and weaponization. Militarization is the build up to a state of conflict and any activity which furthers this objective can be broadly classified as under the term. Weaponization, on the other hand refers to actively developing or deploying a weapon. According to many experts, militarization of space happened way back in 1957 when Sputnik-1 was put into orbit by the USSR. Since then, many auxiliary technology satellites have been launched (telecommunications, relief mapping, orbital imaging, etc.), which directly or indirectly assisted in warfare efforts down on terra firma and over water. Today, militaries all over the world rely heavily on satellites for command and control, communication, monitoring, early warning, and navigation with the Global Positioning System (GPS). While the term "peaceful purposes" hardly applies to such activities, military applications such as using satellites to direct bombing raids or to orchestrate a "prompt global strike" capability are gradually encroaching on the outer space environment and have raised serious concerns. Space warfare can be studied from the basis of a utility criterion in three ways-
- Auxiliary systems – which can assist in warfare on other terrains
- Defensive systems – which are required to protect these space assets
- Weaponized systems – which are purely offensive in nature
In 2012, the then DRDO chief V.K. Saraswat emphasized on a defensive strategy for India in the space domain. Sticking to the principle of ‘no weaponizing’, Saraswat projected the view that space security entails the creation of ‘a gamut of capabilities’, including the protection of satellites, communications and navigation systems and denying the enemy the use of their own ‘space systems’. The domestic Indian missile defense shield is intended to protect key parts of Indian Territory from ballistic missiles originating from China and Pakistan. Priority has to be given to the kill vehicle which needs to be developed on a signature different from the payload vehicle. Going ahead, he remarked that “What is needed is technology to track the movement of enemy satellites, for instance, before making a kinetic kill. We are trying to build a credible deterrence capability.” At the same time Saraswat made it clear that such an anti satellite device “will not be tried out in real life conditions unless there are exigencies”. His comment echoes India’s resolve to stick to a defensive program only. For long, countries have been forced to control the amount of space debris left behind by their activities. The 2007, Chinese ASAT test filled the Lower Earth Orbit (LEO) with an estimated 2500 pieces of dangerous debris. In May 2013, a Russian satellite was stuck and destroyed by one such piece. Thus, defensive systems against debris also need to be developed for LEO satellites. India, which is now a major space faring nation, has in orbit a substantial number of satellites for communications, meteorology, earth observation and scientific research. India is also developing its own indigenous Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System (IRNSS) to reduce the dependency on the GPS used by the US and the Russian GLONASS
India recently launched its first exclusive defense satellite GSAT-7 for the Indian Navy. This is seen as the start of a long line of defense application oriented satellites which the Integrated Space Cell (ISC, initiated in 2008), may want to put into orbit. Talks are already on for an ‘eye-in-the-sky’ system dedicated to the Indian Air Force to be developed and deployed. The Integrated Space Cell is currently operated jointly by the three service arms, the DRDO, and the ISRO, making it more of a central information network system, than an offensive one. The CARTOSAT-2A, a dedicated satellite of the Indian Armed Forces, will also fall under the jurisdiction of this nodal agency. Although a fledgling agency at the moment, the ISC may be the stepping stone to a fully fledged Indian Military Space Command in the near future.
For India, the impending issue is the reconnaissance and surveillance capability of China, which are essentially satellite based systems. It is a well known fact that in battle, the army bunked on higher ground has a natural advantage over its adversary, which has to push its way up amidst gunfire and artillery shelling; and right now this higher ground is outer space.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are personal.
Amit R. Saksena, Masters Student at Jindal School of International Affairs, Haryana.
