Climate change is a global challenge that is largely taking place due to increased levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), produced by the use of fossil fuels. The change in the climate is considered to be one of the greatest threats to Planet Earth. Climate variability is not a new phenomenon. In the past, it is known to have varied considerably at times too. However, scientific evidence has revealed that recent changes in climate triggered by both natural and human-made causes are catastrophic. There is a growing global consensus that climate change is humankind's greatest threat in modern times and is likely to have profound consequences for socio-economic sectors such as health, food production, energy consumption and security and natural resource management. In this context, the Global Climate Risk Index 2014 has ranked Pakistan among the three most affected countries worldwide for three consecutive years based on the climate-related disasters that have taken place in the country. What makes a developing country like Pakistan vulnerable? What are the implications of this vulnerability if left unchecked? Has the state taken any constructive measures to address this challenge?

 

Vulnerability Factors

 

Geography – By virtue of its geographical location, Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change. Pakistan has a diverse topography that consists of the flat Indus plain in the East, the Baluchistan plateau in the West and the Arabian Sea to the South of the country. The Thar Desert in the province of Sindh is separated in the South from the salt flats of the Rann of Kutch by a boundary. In addition, the Karakoram Range is present in the North and Northwest parts of the country.

 

Deterioration of climate is irreversibly harming Pakistan, as glacial melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and affect water resources within the next two to three decades. Winter snowfall tends to nourish the melt mass of ice from glaciers but the balance could be disturbed due to increased heat. This could be followed by decreased river flows over time as glaciers recede. The glacial melt could affect fresh water flows with dramatic effects on biodiversity and livelihood with possible long-term implications for regional food security. In fact water is a major cause and consequence of most social problems. Both geography and demography determine the usage of water.

 

Agricultural Economy – Agriculture is central to Pakistan's economic growth and development. Being the dominant sector, it contributes 21.4 per cent to GDP, employs 45 per cent of the country’s labour force and contributes a great deal to the growth of other sectors of the economy. This sector is largely dependent on the monsoon patterns of the country. Pakistan being a predominantly agricultural country, climate change is estimated to decrease crops yield in the country not only as a result of flooding, but also changing temperatures, which in turn could affect livelihoods and food production. More than two-thirds of Pakistan’s population lives in rural areas and their livelihood depends on agricultural and agro-based activities.

 

Crop water requirement is a function of temperature, radiation intensity, cloud cover, air humidity and wind speed, among them temperature is the most important player. Due to global warming and climate change, thermal regime of the Indus Deltaic plains has also been heating up like other parts of Pakistan. This increase has not been following a uniform increasing trend, rather it is embedded with frequent heat waves of mild, moderate and severe intensity spanned over different time scales.

 

Changes in climate especially increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall would have a negative impact on the future projections of crop production in Pakistan. Usually it is the North, which is the driver of carbon emissions but the southern region is the victim. In Pakistan, inadequate monitoring system, assessment of the likely changes in the weather patterns and its impacts on the agricultural sector make it difficult to have an effective national agro-climate policy.

 

Rainfall Pattern – On the one hand, the seasonal monsoon of March is disturbed due to the changing climate, and on the other hand its inter-annual variability has posed a serious challenge for sustainable crop production. Pakistan's hydrological regime upstream and downstream is intricately connected. If northern parts get surplus of water from heavy rainfall or snow/glacier melting, it immediately runs down to the low elevation plains of Sindh and Punjab, flooding the cultivated lands and destroying standing field crops. In the case of a weak monsoon (less rainfall) in the northern half, again the agricultural plains in the South suffer a lot due to intense heat and lower water availability.

 

There are two major rainy seasons in Pakistan that correspond with winter and summer. In winter, the mid-latitude westerly waves move across the lower latitudes. Under the influence of the troughs of westerly waves as well as blocked frontal systems, northern half of Pakistan receives substantial rainfall over low elevation plains and snowfall in mountainous regions during the winter season. Summer brings monsoon to Pakistan which contributes about 60 per cent of the annual total precipitation from July to September. Pre-monsoon period (May and June) is very hot and dry, and only localized convective rains occur occasionally. Similarly, autumn (October and November) is the dry season without summer or winter rains but low temperatures do not produce as much stress as the pre-monsoon season does.

 

Population and Poverty – Population issues are critical to understanding climate change and its consequences. However, in global conversations and other similar exercises, the impact of population on GHG emissions has often been discussed in an off-handed manner. Recent research and analysis by the United Nations Populations Fund (UNFPA) shows that the relationship is complex, and is deepening the understanding of population dynamics and climate change. Close consideration of differentiated population dynamics and gender inequalities can broaden policy options. They generate better emissions scenarios and improve identification and targeting of vulnerable populations. This, in turn, can lead to more effective strategies for mitigating climate change and helping vulnerable populations to adapt.

 

Adverse effects of climate change mostly impact poor and low-income communities around the world. Those in poverty are at higher risk of experiencing the ill-effects of climate change due to increased exposure and vulnerability. Vulnerability represents the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change including climate variability and extremes. Also, a lack of capacity available for coping with environmental change is experienced in lower-income communities. The cycle of poverty worsens the potential negative impacts of climate change. According to the Asian Development Bank, more than 10 million people have been displaced in Pakistan over the last two years due to these climate related disasters.

 

Pakistan faces a severe crisis as far as food security is concerned. The whole nation has been gripped by a grave state of malnutrition due to catastrophic climatic events, which have destroyed food resources and crippled its availability among the masses. Climate change is also likely to have wide-ranging and mostly adverse impacts on human health. The projected increase in the duration and frequency of heat waves is expected to increase mortality rates as a result of heat stress, especially in areas where people are not equipped to deal with warmer temperatures. To a lesser extent, increases in winter temperatures in high latitudes could lead to a reduction in mortality rates.

 

Implications of Climate Change

 

Floods – Pakistan's economy has been crippled heavily by devastating and repetitive floods during the last decade. Pakistan has been hit by floods almost every year. The floods of 2010 affected nearly 20 million people. It resulted in approximately 1,781 deaths, injured 2,966 people and destroyed more than 1.89 million homes. There was intense precipitation concentrated over the elevated plains of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa due to the interaction of three weather systems from the East, the South and the North. Such interactions are very rare in the pre- and post-partition meteorological history of this region and also it was not the heavy precipitation zone of the monsoon season. The 2011 floods also wreaked havoc, affecting 5.3 million people, 1.2 million homes in Sindh, a lower riparian province, as well as inundating 1.7 million acres of arable land. In addition to the destruction of standing and stored crops, damage to irrigation infrastructure and roads, the farmers lost seeds, tools and machinery on a large scale, annihilating entire villages and hitting the economy hard. The 2010 floods caused widespread damage to monsoon kharif crops that were still standing in the fields in August and early September. The losses have been estimated at $ 2.2 billion in Pakistan, with rural Punjab contributing $1.2 billion to it.

 

Droughts – A drought is a period of abnormally dry weather due to the lack of rainfall. The chief characteristic of a drought is decrease in water availability in a particular period and over a particular area. Droughts are generally categorized into three groups, namely, meteorological, hydrological and agricultural. In Pakistan, when monthly or seasonal rainfall is less than 60 per cent of the long term average in a particular area, it is regarded as a meteorological drought. The lack of rainfall causes reduction in stream/river flows that in turn affects the soil moisture level, irrigation scheduling, crop yield and ultimately growth and development.

 

Pakistan's economy has been distressed heavily by continuous spells of droughts for many years, particularly in the provinces of Baluchistan and Sindh. The drought in these areas has reduced the river flows, resulting in drying up of the irrigation canals, leading to severe agricultural deprivation. It has also been responsible for causing immense losses to poultry and other animals, causing a general deficiency of food and water for people. Increased temperatures due to increased GHGs coupled with mismanagement of water reservoirs contribute significantly to this condition.

 

Rising Temperature – Winter snowfall tends to nourish the melt mass of ice from glaciers but the balance is disturbed due to increased heat. Heat waves are the byproduct of climate extremes. These are now more frequent and intense during the summer over most parts of the world. They are not only responsible for deaths of living beings but can also change the rate of evapotranspiration and soil moisture ultimately causing crop failure. The Himalayan glaciers are threatened by rising temperatures to some extent and this has direct implications for the glacial-fed rivers that flow into Pakistan, especially the country's lifeline, River Indus. It is expected that elevated temperatures will raise the regularity of heat waves in the future. The duration of heat waves may also disturb the water cycle through enhancing the rate of convection evapotranspiration, condensation and precipitation.

 

Cyclones – Tropical cyclones are also being experienced in various parts of Pakistan. As a result of global warming reportedly, the frequency of cyclones has increased over the Arabian Sea during the last fifty years. Moreover, the intensity of these cyclones has also increased during the last quarter of the twentieth century. Strong tropical activity in the Arabian Sea in 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2011 shows a rising trend towards more cyclones, indicating that there is a stronger possibility that the future cyclones can directly strike mega metropolis cities like Karachi and kill thousands of people and may change the way these cities used to live.

 

State Response to Increasing Signs of a Changing Climate

 

Pakistan launched its first ever national policy on climate change, detailing its plans to tackle the challenges posed by global warming, to mitigate its risks and to adapt key sectors of the country's economy, to cope with its consequences only in February, 2013. In view of the conditions explained above, Pakistan has to take a lot of efforts and make financial compromises to deal with the impacts of climate change.

 

The coastal areas of Pakistan including the Indus Delta are most vulnerable to climate change with rising sea surface temperature and atmospheric water vapours causing an increase in cyclone intensity and rainfall. It has become extremely important for the Government to invest in sustainable agriculture and small-scale farmers, to promote the use of drought-resistant varieties, to alternate farming practices and to reduce cultivation of water-intensive crops in case of water scarcity, to build dams and reservoirs for water storage, and to mitigate the risk of devastating floods.

 

The climate change policy, developed with the support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), recommends nearly 120 steps the country could take to slow down the impact of global warming, as well as adapt sectors such as energy, transport and agriculture. It is imperative for the state to put some of these steps into action rather than accumulating them in various documents.

 

Pakistan, which is an already resource-stressed country, has been handicapped by the process of global warming, as the floods and droughts continue to wreck the country's economy. These climatic catastrophes will not cease. Changing weather patterns and climate will be the foundation for more intense and prolonged droughts and heat waves as well as floods, unless strong initiatives are taken to combat environmental deterioration. Some measures that can be adopted to cope with climate change are as follows:

 

  • Increase access to authentic information about the impacts of climate change.

 

  • Improve technological responses by setting in place early warning systems and information systems to enhance disaster preparedness.

 

  • Practise energy efficiency through changes in individual lifestyles and businesses.

 

  • Reduce the vulnerability to livelihoods to climate change through infrastructural changes that are eco-friendly.

 

  • Promote good governance and responsible policy by integrating risk management and adaptation.

 

  • Develop new and innovative farm production practices, including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques.

 

  • Improve forest management and biodiversity conservation.

 

  • Empower communities and local stakeholders so that they participate actively in vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation measures.

 

  • Mainstream climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sectors.

 

  • Involve non-state actors, engage in public diplomacy to generate more ideas and measures to combat the impact of climate change.

 

It is believed that the Government of Pakistan wants to raise awareness and create collaborations by inviting all the stakeholders. The Ministry of Climate Change in Pakistan is planning for the next ten years, a socio-economic and environmental policy in which climate change is a key constituent. Pakistan now aims at planning beyond disaster management because they have to keep in mind long-term concerns and policy options.

 

Although Pakistan itself contributes very little to the overall GHG emissions, it remains one of the most severely hit countries of the world due to global warming. The most dangerous effects of climate change may still be avoided if Pakistan transforms the hydrocarbon based energy systems and if they initiate rational and adequately financed adaptation programmes to forestall disasters and migration.

 

Security Implications for India

 

While climate vulnerability and resource constraints have received heightened attention in recent years in South Asia, particularly in Pakistan, their connection with stability and national security often go unaddressed. The external manifestations of links between India's resource woes and security are discernible in ties with Pakistan. With energy demand rising, India has augmented its efforts to tap hydropower potential of River Indus, thus looking to build more hydropower projects on the Indus Basin's western rivers. These waters are allocated to Pakistan by the Indus Waters Treaty (1960) – though India is allowed to use them to develop dams and other hydropower projects that do not store any water. However, a section of the Pakistan's top echelons in the political, military and intelligence sectors have accused India of using Pakistan's share of water. Such accusations become a security matter when they emanate from the likes of the anti-India militant group(s). Climate change could reduce the water levels of the river and this could snowball into a cause for further consternation on both sides of the border and between them. The impact of climate change cuts across and compounds challenges in political, economic and security areas. The nexus between climate change, migration and conflict is significant primarily because the cross-border ramifications are severely limited by the heavily militarized border between Pakistan and India. Climate change cannot be delinked from the overall energy security and economic growth scenarios of the region. What is important to note is that in international relations, states cannot choose neighbours. The impact of global issues has to be borne by all and most particularly the bordering nations.

 

References

 

Ahmad Shaheen, "Pakistan: A Geographical Battlefield" (Online: Web), http://paktribune.com/articles/Pakistan-A-Geographical-Battlefield-242831.html, accessed on January 5, 2014.

 

Dawn, "Pakistan severely hit by climate change" (Online: Web), http://www.dawn.com/news/1056864/pakistan-severely-hit-by-climate-change, accessed on December 26, 2013.

 

Global Issue, "Climate Change and Global Warming Introduction" (Online: Web), http://www.globalissues.org/article/233/climate-change-and-global-warming-introduction#TheclimatehasalwaysvariedinthepastHowisthisanydifferent, accessed on December 26, 2013.

 

Government of Pakistan, "Climate Change Division" (Online: Web), http://www.mocc.gov.pk/gop/index.php?q=aHR0cDovLzE5Mi4xNjguNzAuMTM2L21vY2xjL2ZybURldGFpbHMuYXNweD9vcHQ9cHNkcHByb2plY3RzJmlkPTE%3D, accessed on January 5, 2014.

 

Government of Pakistan,Projects of Ministry of Climate Change" (Online: Web), http://www.mocc.gov.pk/gop/index.php?q=aHR0cDovLzE5Mi4xNjguNzAuMTM2L21vY2xjLw%3D%3D, accessed on January 8, 2014.

 

Lead Pakistan, "Report of the Secretary-General's High-level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing" (Online: Web), http://www.lead.org.pk/cc/basicguide_climate_change.html, accessed on January 5, 2014.

 

Pakistan Meteorological Department, "Climate Data Processing Centre" (Online: Web), http://www.pmd.gov.pk/cdpc/home.htm, accessed on December 27, 2013

 

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), "National Impact Assessment Programme" (Online: Web), http://iucn.org/about/union/secretariat/offices/asia/asia_where_work/pakistan/projects/proj_niap/Accessed on January 5, 2014.

 

The News International, "Pakistan facing climate change risks" (Online: Web), http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-6-213545-Pakistan-facing-climate-change-risks, accessed on December 27, 2013.

 

UNDP Climate Community, "National Dialogue" (Online: Web), http://www.undpcc.org/en/, accessed on December 27, 2013.

 

UNEP, "UNEP Climate Change – Introduction" (Online: Web),

http://www.unep.org/climatechange/Introduction.aspx, accessed on January 5, 2014.

 

Unearth News, "A "crisis around the corner": Climate change's devastating impact on Pakistan" (Online: Web), http://unearthnews.org/2014/01/24/a-crisis-around-the-corner-climate-changes-devastating-impact-on-pakistan/, accessed on January 26, 2014.

 

UNFPA, "Analyzing the relationship between population and climate change" (Online: Web), http://www.unfpa.org/pds/climate/, accessed on December 26, 2013.

 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are personal.

Portia B. Conrad, Post Graduate Researcher, Department of Political Science, St. Joseph’s College, Bangalore.