Competition for Hydropower in the Himalayan Region: The Complex Regional Scenario

Natural resources are one of the primary determinants of any nation’s development. And the need for uninterrupted access to these resources has led to increasing competition among nation states. The present tug of war for resources in the Himalayan region is the most recent example of this. The Himalayan fresh water reserves are highly crucial for the sustenance of the region. The Himalayas is the source for the Indus, Ganga, Yarlung, Yangtze, Yellow, Mekong, and Nuijang rivers. The Himalayas are the third largest deposit of ice and snow in the world, after Antarctica and Arctic. There are approximately 15,000 glaciers located throughout the range. At 48 miles in length the Himalayan Siachen glacier is the largest glacier outside the poles.[i] The many river basins in the region created by the various rivers flowing from the Himalayas are the lifeline for this region. And the abundance of hydropower capacity inherent in the Himalayan Rivers lends them great significance in the policymaking of all countries in the region.

Countries like China and India have realized the potential of these rivers in the pursuit to meet their rising energy needs. The tremendous growth of China has been exemplary for countries across the world. In every sector, the Chinese are leaving no stone unturned for achieving and accomplishing their interests. According to a report released by IHS CERA (Cambridge Energy Resource Associates), China’s electricity demand will double by 2026, and by 2035 it will be more than the demand of the US and Europe combined.[ii] The rivers flowing from Tibet like the Yangtze, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Sutlej etc provide water to billions of people in the deltas falling in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Myanmar and Vietnam. China has a substantial advantage in controlling the flow of these rivers; hence with the news of it planning to build more than 100 dams in the region, its neighbours have become highly worried given China’s penchant for dominance in the region. China’s increasing electricity demands amidst the climate change debates have led it to move towards other sources for electricity apart from coal. The rate at which China is building hydroelectric dams, is presently unmatched by any country, especially post the completion of the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River. China is currently in the midst of constructing a series of massive facilities in the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra. China has planned construction of a series of 28 dams. The Zhangmu facility is amongst these and is projected to be completed in 2015.[iii] The Chinese also have plans of building a dam at Metog on the Brahmaputra near the disputed border of India and China. This proposed dam intends to be larger than the Three Gorges Dam.  In addition, China has identified another mega dam site on the Brahmaputra at Daduqia, which like Metog, is to harness the force of nearly 3000 metre drop in the river’s height as it takes a sharp southerly turn from the Himalayan range into India, forming the world’s longest and steepest canyon in the process.[iv] One more dam being built on this river is the Motuo Dam.

China’s dam building spree is causing serious concerns among the nations of the region. From India’s perspective, apart from the flow of the rivers being the issue, the locations of the dams near the disputed border area is considered a serious security threat. The dispute between India and China seems to have expanded to water apart from the unresolved land dispute between the two. For countries like Bangladesh it is a matter of sheer survival due to the vast importance it attaches to the Brahmaputra River. The change in the flow of river could lead to drying up of many regions of Bangladesh, proving to be catastrophic for the nation.

In 2012 the failure of India’s Northern Grid was seen as embarrassing for the nation projected as one of the fastest growing economies of the world besides China. Energy security is undoubtedly one of the primary policy priorities of the Indian government, given the need to augment its economic growth. The Indian Government has planned about 290 dams in the Himalayas, which would produce enough electricity to double the country’s hydropower capacity by 2030. The increase of about 100,000 megawatts may provide only about 6% of the country’s needs, but it could play a major role in stabilizing India’s power supply.[v] There are 109 proposed dams in the Brahmaputra, 89 in the Ganga, and 94 in the Indus River basins. The Ganga basin would have the highest number of dams (1/18 km of river channel dammed), followed by the Brahmaputra (1/35 km) and the Indus (1/36 km).[vi] The number of dams in the region has increased drastically over the years. If all the dams are constructed as proposed, in 28 of 32 major river valleys, the Indian Himalayas would have one of the highest average dam densities in the world, with one dam for every 32 km of the river channel. [vii]

But the 2013 flash floods in the Uttarakhand region presented the Indian Government with a new set of problems to deal with. The environmental vulnerability of the region and the lack of preparedness on the government’s part to deal with the disaster made the hydroelectric plans of the country debatable. A committee appointed by the Supreme Court of India, submitted a report in 2014 titled ‘Assessment of Environmental Degradation and Impact of Hydroelectric Project’ to the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests. The panel recommended that at least 23 hydropower projects undertaken in the Uttarakhand region to be called off as they played a significant role in the flash floods. The 11-member panel strongly suggested the enactment of legislation for protecting small but significant rivers and designating “eco-sensitive zones” for all rivers in the state.[viii] The findings and recommendations of the report created a stir of debates in the government. The findings of the committee were condemned by the Central Electric Authority and the Central Water Commission; two influential energy development agencies that have helped lead India’s ambitious programmes to develop hydropower in Uttarakhand.[ix] Like any nation in the world even India is presently facing the dilemma of balancing environmental concerns and the need for energy and development.

Countries like Nepal and Bhutan are also getting more and more involved in the hydropower development of the region. India and China are playing significant roles in the hydropower plans of these countries, paving way for increased competition for resources of the Himalayan region. Almost on a daily basis, a few hours of power cut due to load shedding has become a perennial problem for the people in Nepal.[x]  Bhutan on the other hand produces immense amount of electricity during the peak season – when the rivers are fed with monsoon rains. Hydropower is the top export of Bhutan. But the dry seasons create problems for the citizens. The country has gradually started facing shortage of power.[xi] Though the situation in Bhutan is not as grave as in Nepal, seasonal changes impact the country’s hydropower capabilities massively.

 The requirement of electricity in the region has led to interaction of all these countries with each other, leading to many hydropower plans. In the recent visit to Bhutan, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid the foundation of MW Kholongchu hydro electric project between Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam (SJVN) and Druk Green Power Corporation (DGPC). Three Hydro electric projects (HEPs) totalling 1416 MW (Chukha, Tala, and Kurichu) are already operational. Three more HEPs [Punatsangchu I (1200 MW), Punatsangchu II (1020 MW) and Mangdechu (720 MW)] are under construction. They are scheduled to be commissioned in 2017-18. In April 2014, the two countries signed a framework agreement on four more JV model HEPs totalling 2120 MW.[xii] Bhutan from a long time has exported hydropower to India, being one of the main points of cooperation in the fruitful relations between these two nations. On the other hand, the Chinese are helping the Nepalese in strengthening their hydropower capabilities. In 2012, the parliamentary panel cleared the way for a Chinese company to build a $1.6 billion hydroelectric plant in Nepal, the Himalayan republic’s biggest foreign investment programme. The Government signed an agreement with China’s Three Gorges International Corp, allowing the firm to construct the 750 MW West Seti dam in the northwest.[xiii] The potential of Nepal and Bhutan for producing hydropower is great for the region.  These two nations sit on vast hydropower reserves, which if tapped with adequate environmental safeguards, could make them the hub of a long term regional energy strategy promoting development and stability across much of the Indian subcontinent.[xiv] But, what lies ahead for the countries of the region is a web of complications for achieving these energy demands and maintaining the environmental security in the Indian sub-continent.

The melting of the various snow caps of the world due to global warming has become a known phenomenon. The melting of glaciers in the Himalayas has increased rapidly over the years. Runoff from ice, snow and rain currently provides irrigation and hydropower for the mountains’ 210 million people, plus 1.3 billion people living downstream in the great river basin plains of India. With the melting of ice to continue in the near future, this could reduce water flow during much of the year, or make it too erratic to be usable. [xv] The Chinese are building dams in a very critical position of the Himalayas, which can affect the overall hydrology of the Himalayan system. The flow of the rivers would be in control of the Chinese, who are building the dams in the Tibetan region. They could retain or divert the water during the dry season or discharge water in abundance during the monsoon season. Bangladesh receives heavy rains during the monsoons, but if the Chinese were to discharge water it could make matters worse for the Bangladeshis. The massive Indian plan of building many dams in the Himalayan region has been criticised by critics due to its lack of accommodation of environmental concerns.

Hydropower is by and large seen as a cheaper and a reliable source of energy in comparison to coal and nuclear. Hence, China and India’s race to dominate access to hydro reserves of the region for energy security abundance is intensifying. This competition for energy resources is in commensurate with their ambitions to be global powers. The smaller nations of the region are forming ties with these regional giants to optimise the benefits of the resource and to fulfil their domestic needs. But, all these developments are leaving the Himalayas weaker, fragile and prone to disasters. While building the dams, the countries are not giving enough importance to the environmental safeguards leading to many natural disasters like flash floods in India and earthquakes in China. Hence, amidst the competition for garnering and augmenting hydropower resources in the region, all countries in the region also need to set up a multilateral mechanism to deal with issues of environmental security. And as the dilemma of balancing national interests and larger environmental concerns stare all nations in the face, countries like India and China have to take the lead in such an initiative.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are personal.

Aakriti Sethi, Research Intern, Institute of Defence Studies Analyses, New Delhi