Water—one of the most vital natural resources on earth—has taken centre-stage in the enchanted frontiers and is progressively becoming a weapon of geopolitics. It all began as a mass movement engineered by the legislator-elect (2 May 2021) and leader of the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti (KMSS), Akhil Gogoi and his formation’s demand to halt all mega dam projects in the North East without undertaking correct cumulative impact assessment studies. Gogoi incidentally won the prestigious Sibsagar seat on the ticket of a newly found political party, Raijor Dal. Interestingly, he contested the election from prison. While some of the concerns of activists such as Gogoi and his comrades are bonafide, the fact of the matter is that the rich blue resource of the region—awashed as it is with the white waters from the Tibetan plateau—would not only be a power reservoir for the North East, but also for the rest of the country. The protests that got underway in Assam, spearheaded by the KMSS, against the construction of mega dams is leading to a novel conflict between development and social sustenance.
There is a saying in China. It goes, “Tibet’s waters will save China.” Indeed, the aphorism has returned to centre-stage with the apprehension that China has undertaken colossal ventures to build five dams in the Shannan Prefecture (Lhoka) in the Tibet Autonomous Region. The precise locations, according to reports, are Zangmu, Zhongda, Langzhen, Gyatsa and Jieuxu. The employment of such a mammoth project—it would reportedly cost China a whopping US $ 60 Billion—is geared towards the diversion of the waters of the Brahmaputra (Yarlung-Tsangpo in Tibet) to the Middle Kingdom’s water scare northern and north-western provinces. With an expected capacity of 510 MW, the first enterprise was the 3,260 metres Zangmu scheme. The gravity dam has already been constructed. Just a few kilometres from the Indo-Bhutan border, the last generator was commissioned in November 2014 and it became operational on 13 October 2015.
There was much apprehension, particularly at the time of the news having been broken, that the diversion of the waters by the “upper riparian leviathan” would affect the downstream in North East India. China, of course, denied that it would be so, stating that it would not reduce downstream water flow. The damming of the Brahmaputra, which started on 12 November 2010, marked the formal establishment of the 7.9 Billion RMB Zangmu Hydropower Station. China is known to be on a “dam-constructing exercise” on its important rivers, for instance the well-known Three Gorges Project across the Yangtze River. The urgency of undertaking such projects is to correct the uneven distribution of water in the country, which originated with Mao Zedong’s plan in 1950s to transfer water from the south to the north. The history of the People’s Republic “South-North Water Transfer Project” is an almost two-decade old enterprise (it was approved on 23rd August 2002), one which has been undertaken in order to maximise the water resources available in China. The plan is to be achieved by implementing the South North Water Diversion Project. Whereas the primary thrust is geared towards the diversion of the waters from the Yangtze River to the Hai and Yellow Rivers, the sketch to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra River, located, as aforesaid, in Tibet’s Yarlung Tsangpo is a causing alarm not only in India, but environmentalists all over the globe. The intention to divert the waters from the south to the north is to feed the industrialised areas of Northern China, which as a result of low rainfall has resulted in dry rivers.
The plan to divert the waters of Brahmaputra would affect over 140 million people who are dependent on the red river. For all practical purposes, it would be India and Bangladesh which would have to bear the brunt of the proposed damming and diversion.
However, the spokesperson of the China Huaneng Group, which is the prime contractor of the dam project, had stated that the river would not be affected by the construction of the dam. Quoting in the official Chinese news agency, Xinhua, it stated, “After it becomes operational, the river water will flow downstream through water turbines and sluices. So the water volume downstream will not be cut.” The spokesperson also stated that environmental protection would be a priority. Indeed, the issue of the dam—that has been an cause of great concern for India—was taken up in the India-China strategic dialogue that took place between the then Indian foreign secretary, Nirupama Rao and former China’s vice-foreign minister, Zhang Zhijun in Beijing. Rao had stated—after her meeting with Zhijun on 16 November 2010—that she had taken up the issue of the dam, and was reportedly assured by Zhijun that “it was not a project designed to divert the water and affect the welfare and availability of water to the countries in the lower reaches.” But, notwithstanding such assurances, the fact of the matter is that there is widespread concern about the “diversion.”
Furthermore, it is to be noted that Beijing has embarked on an inequitable “development” project in Tibet. Tibet’s soaring altitude, rugged terrain and inhospitable climate is geared towards the sustenance of livestock farming and traditional agriculture, activities that have kept the high landscape of the “Roof of the World” more or less intact. But Beijing’s policies of fast-track development driven by an industrial model that is not in consonance with Tibet’s topography are destroying the delicate ecosystem of the Tibetan plateau. It is also threatening to ruthlessly alter the natural hydrological regime of Tibet, which may deprive the indigenous population of their land were environmental crisis to unexpectedly come upon them. Specialists are also of the opinion that increased urbanisation and infrastructural development, by way of constructions like the Qinghai-Tibet railway—which runs across shifting permafrost that makes up the Tibetan plateau—could add to the undesirable effects of global warming and the aqua-rich highland of the region. This would have a direct impact on the rivers that meander into Arunachal Pradesh and the crucial glacial mass in the terrain which is fast receding. Such developments would ascertain that the waters that feed the riparian states would soon run dry and sound the death knell for India and Bangladesh.
Wary of the downstream impact of the dam that is being constructed by China in the Tibet Autonomous Region, there is a renewed move by a group of environmentalists in Assam in April 2021 to pressurise New Delhi and take up the issue with China once again.
In the meantime, in the face of both the Chinese dam project and the one that is being taken up in the region by way of the Lower Subansiri Hydro-Electric Project by NHPC in Gerukamukh—which is expected to be completed in 2023—several political formations have demanded a halt to the project, stating that the construction of the dam would pose grave danger to the people as well as the ecology of Assam’s Dhemaji, Lakhimpur and Jorhat districts. The political parties have also pointed to the high seismic potential that threatens the region, and have asked for a correct water treaty between India and China.
The government had instituted an Inter-Ministerial Group under the chairmanship of the then secretary, ministry of water resources in order to study the sub-basin environment impact in the Brahmaputra. New Delhi had also clarified that majority of the hydro-electrical projects that are being taken up in Arunachal Pradesh are to be implemented as run-of-river schemes and would have very limited roles in triggering floods in downstream areas. But, a correct feasibility study of the schemes that are being planned must be taken up for the Lohit basin by the ministry of environment, forest and climate change. Indeed, the concerned minister, Prakash Javadekar has reportedly assured that he would be taking up the issue on behalf of the people of the region with New Delhi. But, as of now water security has become a veritable weapon in not only the hands of the common people, but political parties as well.
But the fact of the matter is that India has been largely downplaying Chinese intentions in the Brahmaputra, stating that the construction site is 1,100 km away from the country’s boundary. The then Water Resources minister, P. K. Bansal had sought to downplay the problem by stating, “It’s a small dam and no reservoir as such. They already have such 15 dams there which they are using for local purposes.” Furthermore, it was stated that there has been no evidence of any diversion. But, agencies like the National Remote Sensing Agency (NRSA) have reportedly confirmed that China is constructing a dam on its side of the Brahmaputra River. In a presentation before the Committee of Secretaries, the NRSA had presented concrete evidence suggesting construction activities, movements of trucks, and excavations being carried out in and around the Zangmu site. The author of the article wonders as to what the amalgamated avatar of the then Ministry of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation as well as the Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation that constitutes the present Ministry of Jal Shakti is contemplating.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are personal.
Jaideep Saikia, Terrorism and Conflict Analyst and author/editor of several books. He has served the Govt. of India as an Expert on North East India in the National Security Council Secretariat and the Govt. of Assam in security advisory capacities.
