Sreekuttan Kolathur Madathil is a Post-Graduate in Geopolitics and International Relations. His areas of interests include China, Terrorism, West Asia, and India’s foreign policy.
Introduction
Amid the prolonging Russia-Ukraine conflict, the world is facing yet another conundrum in one of the most contested areas in the world- Israel and Palestine. On 7th October Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared “We are at war” and Israel is scrambling its defence, including the reserve forces after Hamas launched the offensive with attacks on Israel with thousands of rockets being launched along with assault on land and infiltration via the sea using boats. It is likely that the retaliation will be massive and result in massive collateral damage. However, the conflict in its early stages itself is a cause for worry as the grim reality of escalation, human rights violations, war crimes, and suffering.
The Hamas’s attacks on Israel on the 7th of October took the world by surprise. It has baffled analysts across the world as to how Tel Aviv’s intelligence forces, considered widely to be the best in the world failed to prevent such an attack. Some political watchers have drawn similarities to Israel’s intelligence failure during the Yom Kippur War of October 1973 and how history seems to be repeating itself.
Impeccable Timing
Hamas’s attacks could not be better timed- the US heavily lobbying for a Saudi Arabia-Israeli normalization, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a growing tacit understanding between anti-American powers like Iran and China. These states seek to challenge the existing global security order dominated by the US and other Western powers. Some of them have not been in favour of the attempts made by the United States and Israel with states like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco at the normalisation of ties. The UAE and Bahrain are parties to the 2020 Abraham Accords signed with the US and Israel while Morocco and Sudan pitched in later. Iran and China responded by signing a 25-year cooperation agreement which included deals on oil and petrochemicals. Russia has over the last few months been reaching out to Iran. Hamas has forced the Arab states into a difficult position: Arab states can no longer ignore the issue of Palestine. Besides, Hamas’ attacks have also managed to force the Arab-Israeli rapprochement into a more difficult position, at least for now.
While Iran is speculated to have directly motivated the attack, a charge that has been readily denied by Tehran, the Israeli military also announced that there is no concrete evidence yet as to prove such a notion. US President Biden has already put weight behind Israel, declaring Washington’s support as “rock solid and unwavering” while also warning others against “seeking advantage”. The choice of words employed by the statements released by different countries also is a stark reflection of another major dilemma. This pertains to how the line between terrorism and a resistance or, liberation movement is still undefined and will continue to be a definition impossible to agree upon. The conflict, dubbed by some as the ‘third intifada’ also raises questions on the tactics employed by the Hamas and question on the nature of Israel’s retribution.
Modus Operandi- A Lethal Gamble
The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights of the United Nations notes terrorism includes “intimidation or coercion of populations or governments through the threat or perpetration of violence” and that it “may result in death, serious injury or taking of hostages”. Hamas has ticked all these boxes in one go. The group has killed numerous Israeli civilians and soldiers, the former including senior citizens and children. It has also been reported that numerous civilians including women and children have been kidnapped and taken as hostages, possibly as a bargaining chip against the Netanyahu government which has declared that parts of Gaza “will be reduced to rubble.”
The group has demanded the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israel in exchange for the freedom of the hostages. There have also been speculations that the group has been armed with weapons left by the Americans in Afghanistan which has offered cause for fresh worry as to the extent of the run of arms and the catastrophic consequences that may follow. The Israeli forces reportedly also thwarted an attack of Hezbollah from the Lebanese side, once again bringing the role of Iran in the picture, a reminder of the underlying geopolitical proxy undercurrents between Tehran and Washington.
The Eternal Cycle of Blame Game
While there has been massive condemnation of Hamas from one side, supporters of Palestine argue that the retribution was in the offing, against the apartheid policies of the Israeli government and defence forces meted out to the common Palestinians, especially in West Bank and Jerusalem, including the clashes inside the Al Aqsa Mosque. An Israeli counter-terrorism expert also reportedly predicted attacks on Israel happening in September or October.
President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas said that the Palestinian people has the right to defend themselves. Hezbollah, Houthis and Syria commended the attack by Hamas and Qatar condemned Israel. Saudi Arabia’s statement referred to Israeli “occupational forces” while Egypt warned of “grave consequences” from the escalation in tensions. The statement of the UAE has been vague with a clear departure from any form of blame cast on Tel Aviv. Morocco also reframed also refrained from criticism of Israel like UAE, both being parties to the 2020 Abraham Accords.
Outside the Arab World, India’s statement has also been notable with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, considered close to PM Netanyahu, on 7th October swiftly declaring solidarity with Israel in the wake of “terrorist attacks.” However, five days later, India’s Ministry of External Affairs reiterated India’s “long-standing position” on the Israel-Palestine conflict of calling for negotiations to resolve the issues and called for peace while still terming the Hamas’s attack as an “act of terrorism.” Iran congratulated Palestinian fighters while Chinese response has been to call for restraint while avoiding any denouncement. The Kremlin also took a similar line. On the other hand, US and the Western powers have unequivocally denounced the “terror attacks.”
What Ahead?
The conflict has cast the biggest question mark upon the intelligence forces of Israel, particularly the Mossad, considered by many as the best intelligence organisation in the world. The failure to predict and deter such a devastating attack, being dubbed as Israel’s 9/11, has also been a warning for intelligence agencies across the world as to how they can never lull in confidence and the demands of the craft requiring one to be always on their toes. While Israel has expressed confidence in its victory, the fate of the hostages under Hamas’s custody is awaited by the world. Political watchers also await the implications of this conflict on the Arab-Israeli negotiations and the forming geopolitical alliances spearheaded by the China-Iran nexus, which the West dubs as “anti-democratic forces.”
Conclusion
The conflict will ultimately affect the common people on both sides of the contented borders. For instance, the people in Gaza have been cut off electricity and essential supplies as part of the Israeli response to the Hamas’s offensive.
The conflict is also a reflection of the failure of the international community in bringing tangible, mutually acceptable and ever-lasting solution to a crisis that has driven the lives of generations into a haywire and unending cycle of misery, insecurity, and hatred. One can hope that it serves not as a clarion call for further escalation and involvement of states vying for influence and power but rather as a wake-up call to prevent further tensions and bloodshed and perhaps, another re-ignition.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are personal.
