Dhanasree Jayaram, Ph. D. Candidate and a Project Associate at Manipal Advanced Research Group (MARG), Manipal Academy of Higher Education
Environmental security has become a part of the policy debate in many countries but is yet to gain momentum in South Asia including India due to several other immediate concerns such as poverty, unemployment, illiteracy, malnutrition among others. What the establishments fail to realise is that these concerns are very much linked to environmental change and thus, without addressing the latter, the former cannot be tackled effectively and completely. India’s environmental security scenario cannot be understood in isolation. As substantial amount of environmental security issues that India faces are transboundary.
Take for instance, India-Pakistan relations that have remained tense and hostile since 1947. It has been heavily dominated by the discourse on the Line of Control (LoC). The border disputes cannot be addressed without taking into account their environmental aspects. A significant proportion of the literature on India-Pakistan border tensions talks about the strategic significance of Kashmir in terms of the Indus River that flows through the Jammu and Kashmir. The river is the lifeline of Pakistan and currently it is affected by environmental stress – pollution, flooding, glacial melt and decreased water levels among many others. It is claimed that one of the chief motives behind Pakistan’s demand for Kashmir is indeed complete control of the waters of the Indus.
Similarly, a water-rich Arunachal Pradesh is a major bone of contention between India and China. There are disagreements over water cooperation despite treaties such as the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan and the Ganges Waters Treaty between India and Bangladesh in place. Militaries could participate in initiatives that would involve integrated collaborative and sustainable management of all shared rivers. Joint patrolling of waterways to check illegal activities such as toxic dumping and forests to prevent poaching and deforestation could be another avenue of cooperation. For instance, India and Bangladesh have joined hands to protect the Sundarban tigers as 40 percent of the ecosystem lies in India and 60 percent in Bangladesh.
Yet another issue that should bring the South Asian nations on one platform for discussion and resolution is climate vulnerability. Among the top ten cities that are most vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, Dhaka, Kolkata and Mumbai from South Asia figure, Dhaka being the most vulnerable city in the world. These are some of the biggest population and economic centres of the region as well, thus making them a crucial component of the particular country’s national security. Countries in the region have realized after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the 2005 Kashmir Earthquake, the 2013 Uttarakhand floods in India and several other disasters that they need to put in place a fresh set of policies to deal with frequent disasters rather than adopting a reactive approach. Cyclone Aila, which hit the India-Bangladesh border in 2012, devastated southern parts of Bangladesh and West Bengal. Massive flooding, salt water intrusion and strong winds destroyed agricultural crops, contaminated fresh water resources and damaged several houses.
Both India and Bangladesh have been and will be victims of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal region and therefore, there is a need for the two countries to have a joint integrated mechanism to deal with them in the long run. The recent tropical cyclones in India – Phailin and Helen – saw a sharp decline in the number of casualties because of timely response from the authorities. Thousands of people were evacuated in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh. However, there is still a long way to go in terms of reconstruction of the regions (population and property) that were heavily affected by them.
These disasters have also brought to fore the relevance of military-to-military cooperation in disaster preparedness, management, rehabilitation and relief. The militaries would have to get involved more and more in exercises such as environmental information sharing, environmental risk assessment, environmental management and strengthening the regional security apparatus as environmental change does not recognise boundaries. An entity that is generally not known for transparency now has to change its ways and engage in military diplomacy.
It is a misperception that environmental security threats can lead only to conflict and not cooperation. It is unfortunate that hyperboles such as the possibility of a border conflict between India and Bangladesh due to climate change induced migration is being given unwarranted attention while the potential for cooperation is being largely overlooked. Yet another misperception is that only inter-state migration can be called a security threat. The reality is that every year a considerable number of people are being displaced by seasonal flooding in Bangladesh who do not necessarily cross the borders but move to other parts of the country, mostly cities such as Dhaka (highly vulnerable to climate change), which ultimately puts enormous amount of pressure on their available resources. Therefore, migration (both inter-state and intra-state) is yet another security threat that looms large over the region, especially for Bangladesh and Maldives.
There has also been a debate on whether climate change is a direct cause or a threat multiplier when it comes to migration. Migration from Bangladesh to India has already led to several security concerns in the latter including fundamentalism and terrorism. But this may or may not be directly linked to environmental change in Bangladesh. Climate change is one of the many several causes that need to be put on the table while discussing migration. Even intra-state migration has the potential to evolve into a humanitarian crisis as well if it is compounded by resource scarcity (especially food and water), which is expected to have transboundary spill-over effects. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that if the sea level rise exceeds 2 meters, nearly 50% of Maldives would be inundated and in the case of Bangladesh, a 1.5 meter rise would submerge 15% of all the land area and about 20% of the farmland, with 20% less agricultural production and would displace about 20% of the nation’s total population.
Environmental change is also altering the battlefields in the region. For instance, in the Siachen glacier, the world’s highest battlefield in which soldiers of India and Pakistan are stationed in the most inhospitable conditions, soldiers have died in avalanches on both sides. Moreover, the glacier is reportedly melting at an accelerated pace, thus reflecting on the possible requirement of a realigned military strategy or the need for settlement of the dispute. Military posts in the Himalayas (shared by more than two countries in the region) could be affected by melting glaciers and other changes in environment. Coastal and island military installations are also increasingly becoming vulnerable to environmental changes such as cyclones and coastal flooding, and probable rising sea levels and land subsidence. The Car Nicobar Air Force Base in India was destroyed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. If the military infrastructure gets affected, this could drastically harm manoeuvrability of troops in some of the volatile regions.
Since the book authored by this writer was published in 2012, interestingly, India’s neighbours – Maldives, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and even Bhutan – have recognised climate change as a national security threat while India still considers it more of an environmental or developmental issue. Pakistan even introduced a resolution to discuss security implications of climate change in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) along with its erstwhile colonial master, the United Kingdom (UK).
India has failed to mobilise the support of the majority of developing countries on climate change, including its own neighbours. While every other regional organisation in the world speaks in a common voice at global environmental forums, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is completely divided with India’s neighbours joining hands with the United States (US), the European Union (EU) and even China. India’s seemingly obstructionist attitude towards global environmental consensus and its refusal to consider climate change a security issue has alienated it to a large extent. This has weakened India’s position in the global environmental order, resulting in some legitimate issues raised by it during negotiations – from adaptation techniques, sustainable technology, and finance mechanisms – being overlooked by the international community.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are personal.
