Abon Gooptu is a second-year master’s student at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations at Manipal Academy of Higher Education (Institution of Eminence), Manipal, India.
Hopes for a revitalized coherent strategy to engage with Latin America seemed bleak when United States (US) President Donald Trump, during his inaugural address, stated, “They [Latin America] need us much more than we need them. We don’t need them.” Based on the first few weeks of Trump 2.0, there appear to be similar traits from his first term where his approach towards Latin America steered away from multilateralism (with the US’ disengagement with the Organization of American States) and a unilateral approach towards illegal immigration and drug trafficking.
Trump 2.0 will look to uphold its ‘America First’ agenda and adopt a rather aggressive and transactional approach towards Latin America. But it’s not the same Latin America that Trump had encountered during his first term. Historical ties with Washington will not be convincing enough to deter US’ historical partners in Latin America such as Brazil and Colombia to turn away Chinese investments.
China’s influence in the region has been growing manifold and reshaping the dynamics ever since it became South America’s top trading partner and Latin America’s second largest trading partner. Presently, while the Trump administration decided to impose tariffs on a long-standing US ally in the region- Colombia- for not adhering to its deportation demands, the Chinese ambassador to Colombia wasted no time in putting out an official statement exclaiming that ties between China and Colombia were “at the best moment.”
Here are the key parameters that will shape Trump’s approach towards Latin America under his second term.
Immigration- a top priority
Trump’s characterization of Latin America has often been associated with that of organized crime and illegal migration. During his campaign, Trump made repeated promises to “deport millions and millions of illegal aliens.” Elevated efforts to crack down upon illegal immigrants and enhance border security has led to a series of deportation flights to Latin America. The foundational pillar of Trump’s immigration policy is based upon the US President’s belief that a plethora of the national security challenges that US faces today (such as drug trafficking, crime and illegal migration) stems from Latin America. Hence, Trump 2.0’s policies rely on an aggressive ‘hard talk’ approach to ensure that Latin America cooperates with Trump’s immigration policy in order to gnaw at what is perceived as the ‘source’ of America’s problems.
After taking office, Trump immediately reversed many of the Biden administration’s immigration policies such as the CHNV program which permitted Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans to fly to the U.S. if they had American sponsors to financially assist them. The legal status of over 530,000 migrants has consequently been revoked and now face deportation.
Additionally, with the lingering threat of tariffs, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has agreed to station 10,000 troops of the Mexican National Guard at the US- Mexico border [who shall join the 1500 additional US troops]. The tool of tariffs allows Trump 2.0 to re-ignite its ‘Remain in Mexico’ policy. Furthermore, Trump put an end to the ‘American Dream’ of millions of Latin Americans when he signed an Executive Order discontinuing the CBP One mobile application which was the sole platform for illegal and unauthorized immigrants to legally seek asylum appointments and parole into the U.S. Meanwhile, Family-based parole schemes which allowed Colombians, Ecuadorians, Central Americans, Haitians, and Cubans to reside in the US while applying for green cards, has also been indefinitely frozen.
Trump’s efforts to ramp up deportations have struck a chord with a significant portion of the American population, with a recent Pew Research survey suggesting that 59 percent of Americans approve of the administration’s efforts to deport illegal aliens while 58 percent approve the decision to send additional military forces to the US-Mexico border.
Leveraging Tariffs and Big Brother Approach
Trump 2.0 will not hesitate in deploying a unilateral approach and utilizing its economic and military leverage to regain a strong-hold over its ‘traditional sphere of influence’ and gain concessions from Latin American countries to achieve its policy objectives.
The early days of Trump 2.0 has been laden with disagreements and confrontations. Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro criticised the Trump administration’s ‘criminal-like’ treatment meted out towards deported Colombian migrants. Petro refused to accept deportation flights and demanded the ‘dignified’ transfer of Colombian migrants in civilian planes, as he claimed, “You’re [Trump] going to wipe out the human species because of greed.” However, Petro eventually backed down after Trump threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs (which would gradually increase to 50 percent within a week) on Colombian imports to the US.
The White House viewed this incident as a diplomatic feat, stating, “Today’s events make clear to the world that America is respected again.” Brazil, too, was left outraged and summoned the US envoy in Brazil after Brazilian migrants were ‘degradingly’ deported from the U.S. in handcuffs without any water provision. In recent days, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva accused Trump of wanting to “become an emperor of the world” and called upon the US President to respect the sovereignty of each country – a sentiment that much of Latin America arguably shares.
Tariffs will play a pivotal role in reinforcing Trump’s stances on immigration and drug trafficking. For example, in addition to the designation of eight Latin American crime organization (which includes the Sinaloa cartel and five other Mexico-based organizations) ‘foreign terrorist organizations’, Trump is utilizing the threat of 25 percent tariffs on Mexican imports as he believes that Mexico is ‘not doing enough’ to halt the flow of fentanyl into the US. It is uncertain as to where Trump will draw the line. The coercive threats of tariffs against one if its largest trading partners could potentially backfire on the Trump administration and stagnate trade relations leading to Latin American nations looking towards China to further reduce financial and technological dependence on the US. In the scenario that reverse tariffs are imposed by regional powerhouses such as Mexico, it will be the American consumer losing out.
While Trump 2.0 is being successful in securing key concessions from its Latin American partners, it is insistent on quick and short-term victories to reinforce the populist thought of how America is returning to its glory age under Trump. But this is neither sustainable nor will it come without a cost. Trump 2.0’s approach, though beneficial to the right-wing populist rhetoric of ‘America First’ and prioritizing American needs over the world’s needs, will arguably undermine Pan-Americanism and catalyze sentiments of anti-Americanism. This will simultaneously lead to the lack of political goodwill in the region and hamper US efforts in seeking cooperation from Latin American nations and collaboratively work towards common objectives in the future. This is corroborated by how pro-US opinions plummeted in three of the U.S.’s key trade partners in the region – Mexico, Argentina and Brazil following Trump’s first tenure. It is left to be seen how Trump can fulfil his ‘America First’ rhetoric to satisfy his voter base while simultaneously enhancing trade relations with key trading partners such as Mexico and Brazil without resorting to American protectionism and tariffs.
It can be said that Trump’s approach towards the region will not be characterized by a principle of non-interference and respect for territorial sovereignty, as evident from Trump’s bold claim that handing the Panama Canal to Panama was a “foolish gift” and the US will be “taking it back.” He further stated, “Panama’s promise to us has been broken… We didn’t give it to China, we gave it to Panama.” Trump’s stance has been met with demonstrations outside the US embassy in Panama City, with pictures of Trump set on fire and chants of “Trump, animal, leave the canal alone!” echoed repeatedly.
Trump’s controversial comments come at a time when he has repeatedly made misleading claims that the Panama Canal is “lovingly but illegally being operated by China.” Panama has responded by complaining to the United Nations, claiming that Trump’s threat to violate Panama’s territorial integrity and seize the Panama Canal violates the United Nations Charter.
The China Factor
The confrontational Trump 2.0 approach towards Latin America highlights the need for the latter to reduce their dependency on the U.S. China has presented itself as a formidable alternative, operating under the banner of win-win relationship, south-south cooperation and a policy of mutual respect and non-interference (much to the contrast of America’s historical approach towards Latin America). Moreover, China continues to capitalize on growing anti-US sentiments and make inroads in Latin American nations such as Cuba – a nation which has now been reinstated as a State Sponsor of Terrorism list under Trump. Today, 22 Latin American nations are part of the Belt and Road Initiative and adhere to the One China policy.
The Trump administration needs to sculpt an efficient response to China’s growing influence in the region and enhance its investments in the region instead of limiting itself to a policy of sanctions, tariffs and threats, which in turn ignites a sense of neglect and pro-China sentiments among Latin American nations. President Trump has visited the region only once as American President (in comparison to Barack Obama’s ten visits), while Chinese President Xi Jinping has made five such visits.
Latin America as a region has appeared as thriving market for Chinese goods while also being an important source of supply of raw materials and agricultural commodities (such as soybean) that are instrumental for China’s food security. Consequently, from having marginal presence in the region at the turn of the century, China has now emerged as the regions’ top trading partner in addition to investing in various infrastructural projects such as the Chancay mega-port project in Peru.
China has steadily been expanding its financial footprint in what was once known as ‘America’s Backyard’ while the U.S. practices a policy of ‘Pivot to Asia’. The U.S. needs to grasp that its hegemonic influence in Latin America is in the past, with external players such as China and Russia reshaping the dynamics and long-standing U.S. allies such as Brazil and Argentina increasing their dependence upon China.
Conclusion
Under Trump 2.0, Washington’s approach towards Latin America resonates with the objectives of ‘America First’; however, it remains ambiguous beyond the intent to secure diplomatic victories regarding curbing illegal migration and drug trafficking. A relatively long-term and multilateral approach would be beneficial to US interests and enhance regional stability. Trump 2.0 should look to instill confidence by increasing its engagements and investments in the region, but that seems unlikely in an era of a populist America First agenda.
In all likelihood, coercive tactics, projections of American exceptionalism and lack of respect for territorial sovereignty will arguably polarize Latin America along pro-US and anti-US fault lines, diminish regional goodwill and provide a greater window of opportunity for China to emerge as an alternative to the US. Moreover, a sense of neglect and resentment among Latin American nations will encourage China to increase its presence and influence in America’s sphere of influence.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are personal.
