Dr. Vignesh Ram Guruswamy is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Academy of Higher Education (Institute of Eminence) in Manipal, India. He holds a PhD in Geopolitics and International Relations from MAHE, Manipal. His research interests include Southeast Asian regional security, India’s Act East Policy and understanding strategic issues in the Indo-Pacific region.
Malaysia’s chairmanship of ASEAN in 2025 comes at a critical juncture for the region, as it seeks to address pressing intra-ASEAN issues under the theme “Inclusivity and Sustainability”. The theme is drawn from Malaysia’s MADANI concept, which emphasizes sustainability, prosperity, innovation, respect, trust, and compassion. The chairmanship also comes at an important moment when geopolitical shifts continue to impact the organization’s functioning. Apart from this dynamic, the intra-ASEAN functioning will also be affected by two crucial conflicts in Southeast Asia- the South China Sea dispute and the ongoing war in Myanmar. Both require a key focus and regional consensus to make the process more compliant with regional security concerns.
One of the most urgent challenges is the ongoing crisis in Myanmar. Since the 2021 military coup, the situation has seriously deteriorated with no frontrunner having majority control over the territory. The military government under the leadership of General Min Aung Hlaing controls by some estimates less than 50 percent of the country’s territory. Myanmar, although a member of ASEAN, has been at odds with the organization over its decisions about the ongoing civil war and has been kept out of the organization’s meetings and summits. Attempts of an ASEAN-led mediation process have repeatedly faltered. At the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat in Langkawi on January 19, 2025, it was emphasized that Myanmar should prioritize a ceasefire rather than conducting elections, stressing that peace must precede any legitimate political processes. Malaysia, under the leadership of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, has committed to reintegrating Myanmar into ASEAN and implementing the bloc’s peace plan. However, the success of these efforts will depend on Malaysia’s ability to foster consensus among ASEAN members and engage constructively with Myanmar’s military leadership. To its credit, Malaysia has previously been successful, in formulating a plan to deal with Myanmar in the 1990s, despite the sanctions, and also facilitated an engagement with ASEAN and the outside world through its constructive engagement policy.
The dispute in the South China Sea is another major issue that continues to feature in ASEAN summits and yields a mixed outcome, depending on the chairmanship of the organization. The need for a binding Code of Conduct (COC) remains a priority for ASEAN. At the Langkawi meeting, foreign ministers reiterated the urgency of accelerating negotiations for the COC. However, the expectations were tempered by Malaysian Foreign Ministry Secretary General Amran Mohamed Zin who placed little expectations on a drastic change under Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship, before the summit. The challenge remains whether ASEAN can persuade China to agree to a binding COC while maintaining a united front among its member states. In August 2018, China and ASEAN agreed on a single draft document to negotiate a COC in the South China Sea during the ASEAN-China Ministerial Meeting in Singapore.
The other focal point for Malaysia’s ASEAN leadership is economic integration. The ASEAN community goals of 2025 will be extended to pursue the objective of integrating the organization further. Malaysia’s opportunity to shape the next two decades of ASEAN will be dependent on its actions and ability to bring about a consensus amongst its members. Malaysia’s Foreign Minister highlighted that the four community pillars roadmaps were almost complete and would be adopted at the ASEAN summit in May 2025. Regional integration plans include increasing intra-ASEAN trade and investment as well as facilitating Timor Leste’s ASEAN membership.
These initiatives aim to bolster ASEAN’s economic resilience amid global uncertainties. However, despite these ambitious plans, Malaysia faces significant challenges in its leadership role. Furthermore, ASEAN’s key consensus-based decision-making approach has often been criticized for its ineffectiveness in resolving urgent issues such as the Myanmar crisis and the South China Sea dispute. Malaysia’s success as ASEAN chair will ultimately depend on its ability to navigate these complex regional dynamics, foster unity among member states, and implement policies that contribute to peace, stability, and economic prosperity in Southeast Asia. As in the past Malaysia’s progressive ideas could steer ASEAN toward a new direction. This year’s ASEAN summit and chairmanship will be worth the wait and important to watch for future directions regarding Southeast Asia’s survival amidst an increasingly contested world.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are personal.
